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Israel Election PAD

Real time tracker and analysis of the 2015 Israel Elections

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The Israel Election Polls Analysis Depot is an interactive web application for analyzing the elections in Israel powered by the Shiny library of RStudio and real time published polling data from the Project 61 database.

The App can be found on the shiny servers or can be run through Github

#changing locale to run on Windows
if ([1] == "Windows") Sys.setlocale("LC_ALL","Hebrew_Israel.1255") 

#check to see if libraries need to be installed
x=sapply(libs,function(x)if(!require(x,character.only = T)) install.packages(x));rm(x,libs)

#run App

#reset to original locale on Windows
if ([1] == "Windows") Sys.setlocale("LC_ALL")

Application Layout:

  1. Current Polling
  2. Election Analyis
  3. Mandate Simulator and Coalition Whiteboard
  4. Polling Database

Usage Instructions:

Current Polling

Current Day

The Project 61 prediction is based past pollster error deriving weights from the 2003,2006,2009 and 2013 elections, dependent on days to elections and parties. In their site there is an extensive analysis on pollster bias towards certain parties and party blocks.

Election Analysis

Snapshot of Election Analysis Page

The user can choose to include in the plots Elections (2003,2006,2009,2013,2015) and the subsequent filters are populated with the relevant parties, pollsters and publishers relevant to the chosen elections. Next there is a slider to choose the days before the election you want to view in the plot. This was used instead of a calendar to make a uniform timeline when comparing across elections.

In addition the plot itself is a ggplot thus the options above the graph give the user control on nearly all the options to build a plot. The user can choose from the following variables:

Time Party Results Poll
Election Party Mandates Publisher
DaysLeft Ideology (5 Party Blocks) Mandate.Group Pollster
Date Ideology.Group (2 Party Blocks) Results
year Attribute (Party History) (Pollster) Error

To define the following plot attributes:

Plot Type Axes Grouping Plot Facets
Point X axis variable Split Y by colors using a different variable Row Facet
Bar Discrete/Continuous Column Facet
Line Rotation of X tick labels
Step Y axis variable

An example of filtering pollsters to compare different tendencies for each party in the 2015 elections: Snapshot of Election Analysis Page with filter

An example of comparing distribution mandates per party in the last two months of polling Election Comparison

An example of comparing distribution of pollster errors across elections (up to 10 days prior end of polling), by splitting the parties into five groups compared to previous election: old party,new party, combined (combination of two or more old parties), new.split (new party created from a split of a party from last election), old.split (old party that was a left from the split). Party type Comparison history As we can see the pollster do not get a good indication of new,new.split or combined parties, which could be a problem this election since there are: 3 combined, 2 new splits. Party type Comparison current

#new layer
p=remove_geom(p,"point") #blank ggplot with facets in place
#new layer

Mandate Simulator and Coalition Whiteboard

Election Simulation

Coalition Whiteboard

Polling Database